this comes after lots of commentary on the consumer from many earnings reports this week. we're also going to get fed speak from michelle bowman, lori logan and cnbc's steve liesman speaking with neel cash carry and austin goolbea that's going to do it for us on "overtime. "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight place your bets. the markets grinding higher, we are asking our traders for their best idea in this sort of blase moment the names, the reasons, and the next moves straight ahead. plus, game, set and match. with all the talk of rebundling the bundle, can we declare netflix the winner of the streaming wars, and everyone else is praying to be the runner up and later, the chart master and the ambassador in a "fast money" faceoff an amazing achievement today for

amazon and a white shoe wall street firm with a noteworthy winning streak i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, carter worth, guy adami, and danny moses stocks in the green with the dow jumping more than 330 points, extending its longest winning streak of the year to seven days the s&p and nasdaq closing near their highs of the day markets are in a wait and see period cpi next week, nvidia earnings towards the end of the month so, while we wait for these potential catalysts, we thought it might be a good time to ask the traders what they see as their high eest conviction trad. guy? >> exciting time, guy. >> i was hoping -- >> baited breath >> stop it >> come on >> what is it going to be? >> that means the one i feel most strongly about. >> yes, exactly. >> gdx, melms. >> why >> pull up a chart finally, the gold mining stocks are catching up to the underlying commodity, that, obviously, being gold. and gold has been under pressure

until today, but you know what, the mining stocks have been hanging in there and actually going higher as a matter of fact, i think today or the last couple days, we made a multiyear high i think gold is absolutely in play i think it's basically held in there like a champ in the face of many things that historically would take lower, and here we are. so, gold goes sideways from here, which i don't think is going to happen, i think it's going higher i think the miners the play huge catchup in the back half of 2024 >> this has been a trade you have liked as well, tim. >> if i didn't have my high conviction trade tonight, i would have guy's high conviction trade. i think the meainers have had a little trouble with the inflation story. i'm not sure that that's right i also think that gdx could be flawed if you look at the size of newmont and what that's meant to the overall return. i think gold is going a lot higher i think precious metals are going higher >> time frames are arbitrary, right? year to date, could be one month, six 12 months is not that's a trailing 12-month data.

the s&p is up 1% gold miners are up 26. it's been a great area of the market what it has lagged, though, is the commodity. and so, there's leverage and operating business relative to the underlying commodity they've been great already, up 26%, but there's more to come. >> oh, okay. >> i'm expected to give a short idea, always, when i come on, i want to say, i'm glad to be back when the market is up again. this is, like, third time in a row. really good to be here i'm watching the lower end consumer i love the gold trade. >> thank you, danny. >> i'm watching the lower end consumer, and a rate cut, two, three, is not going to help them and you are already seeing what's going on in subprime auto and the subprime consumer. discover is being bought by cap one, no one is paying attention to that. i'm looking at some of the names right now in subprime auto cacc y two names, which we've talked about on the show before, affirm and upstart. >> this is your high conviction trade. >> right yes, you have to deal with the ebbs and flows of the shorts,

short covering, but i think we're in motion here, and just think, this economy has been so strong for so long, imagine if unemployment ticks up. there's casualties to that in some of the companies. >> haven't we heard this for a long time, that tick higher has not happened and affirm's delinquency rate was only 2.3% >> if you bring up a carter chart of affirm, you'll see it's been on the down swing, pops have come up bottom line is, they're handcuffed by how much funding they can get and they are expecting an uptick going forward. so, just imagine if you couple that with unemployment rising, those are the people who get hit the most when unemployment rises. >> we talked about this last night in terms of these firms don't even know what other buy now pay later loans, the same consumers might have on another platform >> this has been a very -- the room is getting louder in terms of the voices talking about it danny is hitting something that i think we all fear. today, you had a jobless claims number, it's a volatile series, it was up 20,000, it's still historically very low, but all

we do is talk about the consumer that has a job there's no question the fed is targeting the labor market whether they say it or not and there's no question they're going to succeed at some point so, at some point, the credit issues, and again, whatever your timing is, it will play out. and to the extent that there's been -- there was a moment when buy now pay later and affirm and these -- a lot of these -- essentially a lot of this funding came to market, it was the case when the consumer had all kinds of money to spend. they don't have that same pocketbook >> are you thinking down into the teens, that kind of thing, or >> yeah, i do. upstart is much more precarious. the book value is $5, $6 that's how it should be valued it's a financial company i know we're going to talk about another company late their's posing as something else, we're going to get to that at some point, but -- >> that was very cryptic >> it is >> always so shocking. >> i want to watch -- i have no idea what that is. >> who could guess >> but in terms of this trade,

guy, timing is everything. >> timing is everything. >> when you're shorting something. >> pull up an affirm chart since this december, this past december, this stock has made a series of lower lows, lower highs, in a very defined downtrend. there's your chart right there and that's in place. of course, the problem with a trade like this is exactly what you just said. trying to catch the timing i think what you're hoping for and you saw some of it today, actually had a decent day to the upside on decent amount of volume you have a couple of days where shorts capitulate, and that's probably your opportunity to put that short position back on. >> do you see the levels that danny is hoping for? >> yeah that's why i asked, because it looks as though it's going lower. now the question is how much >> tim, let's get to your high conviction trade >> well, you outlined a scenario, what markets are doing, they're grinding higher, and we're within 50 bips of an all-time high. say what you want about the fed, also it's a waiting game, but we're in an environment where probably the central bank that's going to be cutting first is the ecb.

my highest conviction trade is europe it's european blue chips if you look at the euro stocks 50 or the 600, it's finally outperforming the s&p for the first time maybe in a decade and this could just be a small window but there is a dynamic here, where there are technical and structural reasons why european understood sis have underperformed the s&p and certainly the nasdaq over the last five to ten years, and they have a lot to do with the mag seven. the biggest tech companies in the world live in the united states, it's tough t flows and passive fund flows into europe. when you have asml -- >> novo. >> and novo, you have some pretty sexy, you know, pharma, bio tech, and tech companies that are getting their just due. and if you look at the performance of europe over the last year, these companies have had a same disproportionate outsized return profile to the overall index. i think we know in the blicep, the i is my international etf. i think you have a dynamic here, where international really has a

backdrop even with a stronger dollar. and again, the dollar will strengthen, if the central bank differentials favor the fed being tighter than the ecb but it's still going to be good for european stocks. look at the european banks it is easy to pick on deutsche bank over the years, but if you look at their performance, look at a bnp, ubs, these are stocks that are up 20%, to 25%. so, i like europe and i think it's going to continue. >> we've had strategists put forth their version of the mag seven, i think today you mentioned that the latest is -- >> they like acronyms, too, guy. >> who -- you don't -- see, you -- 1. >> you don't get as high multiple with gra nonolgranola >> you seem disappointed what did i do wrong? >> there's no such thing as blicep, tim. you know this. but you were playing by the rules and you decided not to

granola. >> well, granola, you've got gsk, you've got r ooche >> nestle. a couple of ns they really bent the rules >> people have done that in our game, as well. i won't name names, but -- >> but the point is they are very interesting companies >> and it's essentially an a anti-technology bet. >> yes >> it's all about europe's no w weighting in technology, heavy weighting in big banks, not a lot in retail. it's a very different index than the s&p. it's a value story >> yeah. there's no question. and if we've been struggling -- mag sevens are having trouble making new highs and i think it's wait for nvidia to really see what happens i think it's interesting >> there is one company leaving europe, coming to the new york stock exchange, which is flutter. i know tim knows it very well, which is fan dual, and they're going to be listed on new york,

they're moving from the lse here, end of may, they report numbers. we see what's going on with wagering the money in the kentucky derby. much cheaper than draft kings, so -- >> it trades half the multiple of draftkings. >> wow >> and going to the u.s. exchanges, danny is totally right. this is going to see fund flows, most people don't know what flutter is >> i can finally be on the right side of passive flows. >> quickly, this is sort of -- i'm sorry, melissa i am -- >> you're going to hijack the show right now you are. >> i'm not -- >> you totally are >> when you say that, it makes me -- it's such a bad connotation about hijacking. i don't want to be one of those people >> what are you going to do? >> the kentucky derby was this weekend. what is this gentleman's name? >> danny >> who normally sits in this seat >> dan >> what was the winning horse? >> mystic dan. >> did you bet on that horse >> no. you had the other six horses >> you wanted to be contrarian >> i did i'm not a name -- >> understand that danny moses had six of the top seven horses

and he still lost money. >> guess who made money off of me fan duel, so, there you go >> all right, carter what is your highest conviction trade here >> so, john deere. and we can look at a chart or two in a second, but this is an important american franchise think 18084, 220 years, caterpillar didn't start until 100 years later. but it's a stock that after basically a four bagger off the low of covid has consolidated for almost four years. so, let's go to the charts and see what we can see this is a comparative chart. two lines, two colors. and you can see the divergence with caterpillar second chart is the here and now chart of john deere. and that setup is something that's about to move above a well defined downtrend line. and then finally, look at the long-term chart, and again, this is what's important. the stock goes from 100 on the covid low to 400 in basically a year a four bagger in a low beta sort of industrial sleepy name. and then after that has spent three-plus years going sideways. so, is it worth more or less

than it was three years ago? in principle, it's worth more. play for the breakout. >> how do the final bounces line up >> i like it on valuation. despite the move that it's made, and again, if you're looking at a three-year or even, you know, a one-year or a ten-year, it has had at least a move over some time here. the multiple, it's probably cheaper than it was five years ago. it's a company that not only is getting some of the benefits that the other industrial companies are getting from a.i. and efficiencies, but it's a company that i think is probably in the sweet spot right now of an ag commodity cycle. >> report on the 16th before the bell, may 16th, that is. you don't have the eps growth, however, you have a valuation that's basically discounting a lot of that. trades at less than 14 1/2 times next year's numbers. it's been building this base we've seen decent news out of caterpillar. >> we talked about the base yesterday. >> we did talked about a base, not the base >> don't get mad at me for that. i didn't bring it up i wasn't -- >> this is on point.

carter mentioned a four-year consolidation. >> big base. >> yeah, and that, of course, is great -- that's what we're setting up for sorry, i'm a little agitated now. >> join the club. meantime, weekly jobless claims coming in at the highest levels since last august, raising hope that the fed may cut rates. but our next guest isn't too convinced. ben eamons is a senior portfolio manager and head of fixed income at new edge wealth ben, what are the factors that will drive us above 5% at this point? it seems like we found a nice little range here in the 4.5% range or so. >> that's what it looks like, but again, i was watching japan. we've talked about it on the show before. the latest there is that the bank of japan's now really openly out saying, we may have to move faster and sooner than we thought before, because they're looking at the yen that continues to struggle. and the connection there obviously between the ten-year and the yen is pretty strong

but i you this it's really the japanese market that is going to play here, because that's inching towards 1% on the ten-year yield that's sort of a psychological barrier, right just like in our market when we went to 4%, now close to 5%, so, we have to really watch this, because as much as the market is controlled by the boj, as they say, they can just as much move as fast as treasuries, really lily kwidty. so, i think it's going to be really interesti ing from here o bank of japan is going to manage interest rates >> so, if the boj does make a move, it would seem to me that that would be a permanent move -- a permanent move, meaning they'll stay at that level, higher levels, right? and so, therefore, the ten-year yield would stay at higher levels do you think this is a sustained move above 5%, because of this, or is this just a pop above? because markets have been able to deal with a pop above here and there, but if it's sustained, that's a little bit of a different story >> i think that's a good point, bau

because if the link is there, that japanese interest rates go higher and correlation with u.s. rates is there, then that sustained move, as you talked about, would be a completely different world. we have to put intoen c contexta 5% would do, it would put more pressure on the u.s. economy, that would lead people to discounting there would be rate hikes coming in the global rate space as it's being traded, japanese government bonds have never really played a role driving interest rates that's changing now. you could have, say a period of the ten-year hitting 5% or higher, and stay there, and then we're going to keep debating it. so, i think there's this risk that we're going to go higher. >> ben, i want to say i agree with you the flip side of the coin is, though, gdp came in very disappointing. the data that's been coming out has been soft. that would suggest rates should go lower, so, you have this tug of war going on, and you're suggesting it's going to be won by the supply side of things,

and probably throw some inflation in there, and that's why you have yields going higher but is there a chance that obviously the economic side wins out and rates go down? >> there is, but i would -- i'm more on the side what you're saying the supply side is driving it. because it seems to have higher rates have not really impacted that, and that's, i think, really a function of, we continue to put a lot of money in the economy every day i'm on this inflation reduction act, and infrastructure act tracker, so to speak, every day, i see emails from projects across the country i think it's driving productivity higher, and that's part of the push behind rates, that makes it hard for them to go sustainably down. i mean, the other part of that is, we have no real downside pressure yet on inflation. we're kind of stuck where we are. could develop, but i don't think it's likely. this we get really moved down, i could see rates lower. so, i think it's struggling here

for the treasury market to make real gains the low end of the curve will continue to stay under pressure. >> the global central bank experiment began in japan, so, now they're right in the middle of it again. to guy's point, if the ten-year yield starts to move in the u.s. based on supply and demand, i don't think a lot of people are in that camp so, if you start to go north of 5% while inflation may be coming in, it may get people a -- a little exercise, as guy likes to say, and what do we do at that moment we're backing away from qt, we could some day go to qe. but what gets people thinking about the deficit and the debt levels of the u.s. and what that means for higher rates >> yeah, that point, danny, is right. the real tipping point is the interest rate level in itself relative where gdp is. if you're getting interest rates 3%, 4% above gdp, people start calculating how the level is going to balloon, and that's going to be even higher rates. that's what europe experienced ten years ago. it's hard to pinpoint the exact level of rates, because who

knows, but i do think that you make a fair point here that this is another aspect of the supply side we can't ignore the deficit. we know that nothing is happening on the deficit front neither president is making any kind of statement or doing anything, perhaps, about it, so, the market is going to have to discount a risk premium. my estimate is, there's studies on this, too, it's at least 30 basis points in the ten-year, that seems to be the case. that seems small, but it's incremental, right talk about sustained, you take 30 basis points off the ten-year, you get a little data surprise, we're above 5% and th. >> ben, thank you for coming by. >> thank you >> ben emons where do you see yields going? >> yeah, i guess -- the higher for longer, when you hear mantras, something becomes very popular, like granola, for instance, dot com, a.i., it's usually right to sort of question it, not just embrace it so, we know this, at the end of 2022, in q-3, we were at 4.35%,

that's october of '22. we're now may of '24 and we're 4.45%. so, unless i'm doing the math wrong, we're up ten basis points in 20 months is that higher it's not higher. it's maybe goldilgoldilocks that period, where we've gone up ten basis points, gold's up 40%, s&p's up 40% yields are up ten basis points since october of 2022? >> i hear you on that. and again, you picked two points and you are usually very, you know -- you point that out every time, but we do have an uptrend in rates and you could go from july of 2020 and we have an uptrend that's doing this, or, for you people at home, something like that, and i just think that, ben's right, we're all right to be pointing out the difference between rising interest rates related to inflation and rising interest rates and it's absolutely a credit issue for the u.s. government. when it comes to rus, we don't

know that's given us a lot of credit that maybe we don't deserve. >> that's fair what i try to grapple with is, the fed's talking about easing i would think that that's good for the economy. i would think the ten-year y yields wouldn't come down, they would go up in a healthy way we had 5%, 6% back before the government intervened. it's normal. and the economy is doing very well with these rates up here i think it's starting to have an impact >> i mean, the human condition is to want to see change, right? because something's not moving, you are bored, you move onto something else >> in any part of your life? >> very true >> we don't need to go into that >> we've been here for 17 years. but anyway >> point being, i mean, we're always looking for something that's moving. what if it is just -- and i have a lot of big clients who say, we're just in a sweet spot, it's going to be this 4% to 5% and that's where it's going to sit what if that's the case? then the whole conversation -- >> equities go higher. >> maybe so. or it's not worth talking about

yields >> right all right, coming up, the data center reit reporting blowout earnings and saying a.i. is helping them grow. inside the big move next. plus, roblox wreckage. falling more than 22% on earnings today we will look at the numbers behind this buzz kill, right after this this is "fast money" with melissa lee right here on cnbc

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welcome back to "fast money. eqinix saying that the rapidly evolving a.i. landscape continues to be a catalyst pushing growth the stock putting in its best day since 2020. a.i. optimism boosting amazon to a fresh all-time high. they're up 25% this year and investing in mren plenty of. of its own as of late. guy, what do you make of this new high here? >> so, amazon is breaking out. carter, i think, did work on this a couple weeks ago and outlined this exact move so, well on him. eqix is interesting. yes, it has a great move, but

pull up a longer-term chart. look at the huge drop this stock had. so, what are we talking about here is this the beginning of something? or is this just a bounce off an oversold condition now, as i look at it, you know, maybe have a little bit of a double bottom, but this is still a very expensive stock that probably found itself in an oversold condition like many of the stocks in that same world. i'm not saying you fade this, but you better look closely at what you're buying >> the back story to that drop, it was the target of a report questioning the accounting there was an investigation opened, they said in the earnings release that the investigation is now closed. so, there's a lot of -- >> the internal investigation is closed >> yes but that caused a lot of short covering to happen in today's session. >> i have no -- i have no skin in the game. >> you did emphasize internal versus external. >> the difference, when you're looking at stuff like this and the people ma write reports like that, they do their work. they think there's an accounting irregularity, you're right, short interest grew. it's still not back where it was, it was over $900 when that

report came out. i would not compare those two companies, ever, two different animals there for sure >> for sure. and also, you make a point, it's the biggest one-day move since 2020, it's all the same price as it is in 2020. so, just back to where you were four years ago yeah, amazon's action is different. a strong move that gets you to a new all-time high, having been in a range, is a much more important thing than a strong move after having sold off a lot. >> right >> but you -- amazon, so, if you go back to that all-time high at the end of 2021, we're right there, right and talk about a v on a chart. that's about as easy to spell out as you can i think the aws story is part of why this is going higher but what's underappreciated is the profitability in the retail business, and there's actually margin to pull, and this is something that we've talked about. do they want to be profitable? are they going to try to squeeze profits out of there >> all right there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. did netflix just win the streaming wars

we'll ask an entertainment industry legend that question and much more as we dive into a groundbreaking tieup that could reshape the entire streaming landscape. plus, roblox wrecked shares of the online gaming platform reeling as players pull back can the company get engagement back on track? we'll debate right after this. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. big buzz kill for online gaming fans roblox sinking 22% today for its second-worst day ever. this after the video game developer slashed guidance roblox sees full-year bookings around $4 billion, which is down from its previous guidance of $4.14 billion, on the low end. daily active users on the platform jumped 17% to more than 77 million they're not spending as much things are normalizing p people would spend hours and lots during the pandemic >> not good, i mean, listen -- daily active users up 17% year over year. hours engaged up 15% year over

year that's good until you look at the valuation. they have to do a lot better than that to justify this. and if you look, this was everybody's darling, i think, in '21 to '22 this thing has flatlined for three years. it's gone up and down along the way, but this is a nowhere stock to me. >> i give management some credit here, because their trends aren't terrible, and they choose to be very conservative on this guide. the volatility on the stock, carter's probably got a view this has traded in 100% increments, you know, over the last three years, and it once behaved as a high multiple stocks, as all behaved after the fed started to high and went into that cycle. but this stock has really just been trapped into a sideways move >> do you have a view? >> so, there's -- there are trading vehicles and this probably comes into that, and then there are investments if you are trades at $30 and your ipo was $45, below your ipo, what is it? so, three years later,

everything you've done is negative, i would call that a trading vehicle at best. >> always has a large move on earnings day, as we know online gaming, they should switch to onfline gamblgambling stocks finishing in the green today. the dow jumping more than 330 points to lock in a seven-day winning streak the s&p rising half a percent and the nasdaq up a quarter percent. goldman sachs now riding a seven-day winning streak the big bank gaining 7% along the way. plus, a triple dose of afterhours action, dropbox, unity software, sweetgreen all on the move after reporting results. goldman sachs, guy, got to go to you. >> good for david solomon, who has been under the spotlight for quite some time. during his tenure -- >> d.j. sol, please. >> when the stock is on an upswing, he's d.j. sol >> he can be allowed to dj -- >> excellent point

he's made some mistakes, he's the first to admit it, but they've pivoted to certain things at the right time and the stock has done extraordinarily well and probably going to continue this trajectory >> how does it look relative to other banks? >> well, relative to morgan stanley, it sure looks good. the only question is, if i had this and was profiting, i think i would sell calls or put other hedging strategy >> great move getting out of the consumer lending business. focusing more on what they're really good at pick up in m&a, the calendar >> sweetgreen, the consumer's under pressure, are we paying 20 bucks for a salad? >> are we paying seven bucks for a latte? >> not anymore i mean, i just -- i see it's up and i see the trends are decent, but i question >> yeah. all right, coming up, utilities quietly climbing to more than 52-week highs, but there isn't a lot of agreement on where they're going next tim and carter set for a "fast money" faceoff that's next. plus, are the streaming wars over we'll sit down with an industry

stud to talk the battle for the bundle right after the break missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

welcome back to "fast money. shares of warner brother is discovery rising 3% today. the media giant reporting growth in its streaming business, though it posted a bigger than expected loss for the first quarter. revenues coming in soft. the earnings report coming off disney and wbd bundling their offerings. the package will be available this summer. for more on the streaming space, let's bring in tom rogers. executive chairman at orbit gaming and entertainment tom, great to see you, particularly in person welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> so, for a long time, we've been saying that netflix is the winning of the streaming wars, so, this week, all the earnings reports, they may prove that who can be number two, though? >> well, that's a great question, but i think the disney earnings report showed that disney really hit a milestone that takes away a lot of the

skepticism i have had about this -- >> really? >> you know i've been cynical about disney and -- >> rightly so. >> always saying, hey, don't just look at the sub growth on streaming, think about the linear business and its decline, but what happened, and no analyst really pointed to this, which was surprising to me, for the first time, can you see that the revenues of its streaming business are now as big as its traditional tv linear business they have kind of hit equilibrium. run rate, $25 billion in revenue just about, on the streaming side now, obviously they have margin issues and profitability to prove, and the entertainment piece is disney+ and hulu did it profitability, but that's the kind of scale you need to be able to show that the streaming growth can make up for the whole on the linear side of the equation, which is going to continue to be dug deeper. >> so, when you say that the earnings report changed how negative you've been, how do you

feel about disney now? do you feel good about them? they're on the right path? they can make this work? >> well, they got a lot of challenges still hulu is a problem child, no doubt. its subs have kind of stalled. amazingly, even though it's the grand daddy of ad-tier streaming, it's advertising actually designed, and it's done so for several quarters, which is a bit perplexing. but disney, when you take away the duplication of espn+, disney+ and hulu, has 77 million unique users in the united states, which is about what netflix has, so, if you believe that netflix is going to be in just about all streaming homes, you'd have to put amazon in there, too, because so many people get it for free now, if you take the ad tier disney, with those kinds of numbers, really looks like it has a claim for three. and what hasn't budged, it

doesn't look like consumers are taking more on average than four streaming services so, if three slots are taken, that really creates a lot of competition about who is going to be in there for number four if you look five years out, all these companies will probably going to make it, but the near term transition, which is really hard for these public companies to face, really looks tough, and that fourth spot is the one that really creates all kinds of issues for the other streamers >> so, you mentioned the granddaddy, i mean, you being the godfather, and you're playing the role of kind of what we do here, your call on disney is particularly interesting, given where the analyst community was very negative. so, let's put you in your analyst chair and ask you, back on the one that you've loved the story at netflix, the drivers now are what free cash flow could be, you know, you could have free cash flow percentage north of 20% you have a dynamic here where they have pricing power. what's the driver to the

multiple, do you see we know they've won -- they've won -- they've won the battles and the war so far >> well, i think that netflix, which, not long ago, people were saying, hey, this thing will never generate cash flow, as you say, is generating a lot of cash flow, and its margins are increasing, and they just upped their guidance on their margins. so, it's in a category by itself i always say the crown as a program may be over, but it's been crowned the most successful media company and it will continue and the international story, i think, is the one to watch they have 270 million subs they're in 190 countries they got a lot of running room internationally to grow. they have a unique programming development opportunity relative to the others, in terms of the amount of local programming in other countries that they do that they've been able to import to the united states and elsewhere, and make that successful on a global basis

and i think that formula has a lot of running room, not to mention they're growing in ad tier and the ad business now is very small, but that has real potential, as well >> folklore suggests the fountain of youth is not a clear th thing, but it is -- >> he looks younger than you do. >> well, it's a low bar. >> i'd rather be known as the guy as opposed to -- >> he's the godfather. >> you talk about -- you talk about the godfather, i don't call my youngest grandchild by his name, i call him seymour and that is true >> lucky guy >> so -- here's the question to you. they report on -- netflix, april 18th no longer going to give quarter lie guidance for subs in 2025. stock's down 13% they obviously probably knew that was going to happen was that the right move, focusing on revenue? >> i don't get that move i mean, if you're an advertiser in japan, you're an advertising

in europe, you're going to sit there and say, you don't have to tell me how many homes you're in, i'm sorry, i don't need to know that. if you're pushing your ad business, you're going to toll the advertisers how many homes you reach. they need to know that number. it's all about reaching scale. so, that number is going to come out, and i really didn't get that at all. i think, you know, what's crazy about trading these media stocks on the basis of earnings, you know, netflix was down 10% or more on that, disney was down 10%. these are two companies that i think demonstrated with the earnings announcements how they're strong, improved narrative going forward, yet, they have major declines paramount has been going up lately, when it's in huge distress warner brothers, which, i think -- >> goes down every day >> real weakness today with its earnings, with a lot of problems hanging over its head. trading on these earnings announcements with these media

companies, i think do at your own risk >> tom, thank you for coming by. >> thank you for having me >> which looks better, carter? netflix or disney? >>. >> one is a very weak stock that's trying to recover, netflix is a very strong stock, but the importance thing, so many stocks in the market have now gone back and exceeded their 2021 highs netflix has still not made a new all-time high. that was 700$700 the stock is at $612 higher, but for now, we have it as a strangle, and that's a different subject. >> it's amazing how netflix keeps finding another way to generate revenue, as tom was talking about. live sports is the next big move they have a huge fight coming up in dallas with mike tyson. that's the next iteration, how people are viewing -- >> is that going to be a sport >> it's actually sanctioned now, so -- >> sports entertainment. >> yes >> thank you that's right, melissa. coming up, a rumble at this roundtable

utilities leading the s&p over the last month, and tim and carter are ready to go head-to-head over what to do next with the group. you won't want to miss the studio b brawl next. plus, tesla's struggles continue why danny is doubling down, when "fast money" returns ga, the advanced form of dry age-related macular degeneration, can irreversibly damage your vision. it can progress faster than you think. when ga threatens your eyes, take a stand. slow ga with syfovre. syfovre is an eye injection that was proven to slow damaging lesion growth over 2 years

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welcome back to "fast money. the xlu has been a hit recently, outpacing every other sector in the past month and closing today at its highest level since january 2023 but not everyone on this desk agrees as to where the sector is going next tim thinks the rally is just getting started. carter says it's time to take profits. carter, lay out your case. >> so, we can go right to the charts this is a followup, sort of idea, judgment, from an april 2nd piece published for clientse not going. you can see where the xlu is in relation to its 150-day moving

average. pull it back a little further and you can see where it is in relation to its 150-day moving average. every instance over the past ten years when it's been this far above trend, some sort of mean reversion. so, the judgment is to trim longs to reduce exposure now, when it's starting to become favorable on the street. >> tim >> and that makes sense, because i -- i'm going to think i hear actually an ultimately a bullish bounce coming out of carter a couple of weeks after we pull back the bigger story for utilities, they were oversold from september of '22 to september of '23 on the intensity of the rates move, and there was some question about whether a lot of these companies had a balance street structure, but even a cost structure that worked we're now in a place where people understand there's some dynamics that mean power demand is going hugher. we've had a utilities world where it was always about supply and demand was kind of sideways to upwards you've all been hearing this, maybe you have been playing the demand, the data center around

a.i., and this whole dynamic putting possibly a 10% additional demand on energy prices by 2030 that's massive massive at a time when transportation, ev, even nuclear -- the trends around nuclear, it's all interrelated i own utilities on a multiyear play i think they're underowned i think the profitability and the free cash flow of the next era, which was beaten up especially in '22 >> you make the best point of all about, you talk about, do you know that utilities total return and the s&p 500 total return are dead even for 24 years? >> really? >> it goes to show on a long-term basis, you always want to have yield as part of your portfolio. >> didn't you promise, like, an all-out, drag-out -- >> we were going to be throwing each other down. >> correct me if i'm wrong -- >> a couple gentlemen >> this sector trades relative to yields, ten-year yields

tim's point, i think the point you're making, i think it's a stock picker that's a stock picker's group, not just about owning the xlu. >> next year, 15% of the xlu a huge downdraft they reported in the middle of april. if you think the xlu is going up, to some extent, you have to think yields are going lower it's also a valuation play, as well i'm in the tim camp. coming up, danny is going to lay out his favorite short play. why he thinks this already struggling name could still lose more than 70% of its value that's next. more "fast money" in two

welcome back tesla's charge continuing to get drained, down a percent and a half for a third straight day, in the red the company has removed 3,400 job listings from its site recently only three positions are currently posted the stock is down 6% already this month danny here sticking with his short call on the stock after calling for it to head to $50 here on our show last november so -- how do you feel about it now? >> for someone who cares so much about the human race, he is firing a lot of humans at this moment and everything is kind of falling apart in their core business he's pointing everybody to robo-taxis and a.i. and autonomy at the same time, the doj is

now, reuters reporting, is, you know, is investigating this for wire fraud, because he's been selling a product that doesn't exist. so, we have august 8th, this unveiling of robo-taxi day before that, going to be the wrote. shareholders are probably going to garant him $56 million in buy-backs. bil wayve, they are using autonomy right now for driving in cities. i don't think people paid attention enough i'm invested in a fund compounded that has an investment, they were there early, seven years ago, so, i've been up on the story for a long time people need to see -- the more time that goes by here, and their core business is coming under pressure, i think this move to own it for robo-taxis and a.i. is going to fade over time 150 billion market cap at 50 bucks seems like a reasonable valuation. >> you are still short >> still short

>> looking for it to head to 50. >> yeah. >> we have news on openai. pippa stevens? >> they are planning to announce its google search competitor on monday that is according to a report from reuters, citing two sources familiar with the matter now, this,of course, would raise the stake in its competition with the search king google so, once again, openai planning to announce its google search competitor, according to reuters. >> all right, pippa, thank you up next, final trades. ging their and payroll. why would you think mere humans deserve to do their own payroll? because their livelihoods depend on it? because they have bills to pay? hear me now, paycom! return the world of hr and payroll to its rightful place of chaos or face a tsunami of unnecessary the likes of which you have never seen!

final trade time tim? >> next era. biggest position in the xle with a lot of data center exposure. >> carter? >> deere and company, better known as john deere. >> danny so nice to have you here >> long flutter. flut earnings next week >> guy >> never said that to me just saying. >> nice to have you. >> make me feel good

the rangers are in carolina tonight. i'll be locked in. and the knicks, basically, you know, it's a gritty team, as you know and you were watching the game last night do you have a final trade, guy yes, i do. pan american silver. as thank you for watching "ft. "mad money" starts right now. ". "mad money" starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but to explain so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer even on a geedecent day like to when the dow gained 33